Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 14h00 UTC
Bitstamp 4-Hour Candle Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The “halvening” is mere blocks away and the Bitcoin community is in a celebratory mood. This is a very good indication of positive social mood and we know what positive social mood leads to: buying.
Although the expectation is for advance, it is not certain that price will surge at the moment of truth. As explored in yesterday’s analysis there are 3 likely scenarios going forward: Immediate advance, Consolidation and gradual advance, and Decline-bounce-rally.
Looking at the 4hr chart above, there are very few clues. Price appears to be in a state of consolidation similar to the price action in the magenta circle (bottom left). Will it still decline to the previous decline low (magenta arrows)? Or has price already bottomed out, ready to cross above the 200MA at all timeframes and advance through resistance (blue layer) to $750?
There is one reservation that needs to be mentioned at this moment: yes, mood is positive, and there is little reason to suspect malicious manipulation of the bitcoin price chart, but when the majority is unanimously positioned long, it does present certain large players with a profit-driven incentive to surprise to the downside. This does not affect buy-and-hold speculators – who simply wait and weather the storm – but it does affect leveraged traders who stand to lose bitcoins due to stop-losses and forced margin liquidation.
If, in the coming hours or days, price does begin convincing advance, prudent traders may consider delaying their entry into trend until price has advanced above the blue resistance layer from $680 to $705 (Bitstamp). Each trader should decide for themselves, of course, but is sensible to wait for price to clear the current contention zone and to develop upside momentum. The extra caution will sacrifice almost $50 of chart profit distance, but what is that in the context of potential $hundreds to the upside?
I’m always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. Don’t focus on making money, focus on protecting what you have. – Paul Tudor Jones
Summary
Bitcoin price is at $650 at mid-year 2016 just hours prior to the halving. There is a lot of expectation pegged on this event, and I wish our readers good luck in their speculation. Remain calm, focus on managing your risk and if a wild ride ensues, remember to take profit when the market becomes exuberant or you feel euphoric.
Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume
